yeah. what's pretty wild is that we're up 9%, and so only to the point where a $4.4B acquisition has led to a $4.4B destruction in equity value (instead of ~$5B). Still think it's an excellent buy here, I'm long in size.
It definitely was in early November! Little tougher to call it a "hot stock" down 40%-plus, but I see your point - there's definitely some optimism toward broader tailwinds, even at the current valuation.
I see this as a pricing opportunity much more than a business opportunity (though I do think this is a good business), so from my perspective it's full position or zero. If the thesis is correct, there should be a relatively quick bounce, as the market gets a chance to incorporate exactly how insane this plunge has been. I'd want to capture that bounce in full.
That said, the way I see this scaling in isn't terrible, because I think the sell-off is ridiculously overdone. I'd love to be in here below $130 (Friday's close was $126) but I wouldn't hate an entry under $150. It's probably a lower-risk strategy to nibble and see how the market reacts, and then add on if/when the bounce becomes clear. (We'll see if Friday's +3% move meant anything.)
Personally, I'm planning to buy at the open on Monday and it will be something in the range of a full position. Not investing advice, of course, but that's my view for my portfolio.
I've looked at it before, albeit not this closely. What spurred this article was just a simple screen for 1-month decliners. Per finviz, it's the 27th-worst performer out of 3,880 names (market cap $300M+).
Super good play so far !!
yeah. what's pretty wild is that we're up 9%, and so only to the point where a $4.4B acquisition has led to a $4.4B destruction in equity value (instead of ~$5B). Still think it's an excellent buy here, I'm long in size.
Going strong in as well Monday
given the valuations, this seems like what Lynch would classify as "hot stock in a hot industry".
It definitely was in early November! Little tougher to call it a "hot stock" down 40%-plus, but I see your point - there's definitely some optimism toward broader tailwinds, even at the current valuation.
So far so good in this play :)
How would you play something like this? Buy a starter position now and scale in as GTLS executes?
I see this as a pricing opportunity much more than a business opportunity (though I do think this is a good business), so from my perspective it's full position or zero. If the thesis is correct, there should be a relatively quick bounce, as the market gets a chance to incorporate exactly how insane this plunge has been. I'd want to capture that bounce in full.
That said, the way I see this scaling in isn't terrible, because I think the sell-off is ridiculously overdone. I'd love to be in here below $130 (Friday's close was $126) but I wouldn't hate an entry under $150. It's probably a lower-risk strategy to nibble and see how the market reacts, and then add on if/when the bounce becomes clear. (We'll see if Friday's +3% move meant anything.)
Personally, I'm planning to buy at the open on Monday and it will be something in the range of a full position. Not investing advice, of course, but that's my view for my portfolio.
Thanks, it's really interesting to get more insight into your thought process.
How did you find GTLS?
I've looked at it before, albeit not this closely. What spurred this article was just a simple screen for 1-month decliners. Per finviz, it's the 27th-worst performer out of 3,880 names (market cap $300M+).