Very interesting! On the other hand, quality luxury companies like LVMH and Kering are presenting pretty solid results (though they slowed in the 4Q2022).
absolutely they did, and that's the core of the short case here. Canada Goose is not LVMH, it's Capri — high-end but still with price-sensitive customers and without those indefinable qualities that make a luxury brand. GOOS even down big isn't priced like that.
but...it's been a really weird four years. They're still a relatively young company in terms of their time being this big, they've opened almost 50 stores (which can be tricky), etc. etc.
I think the 30% margin target is insane, but if they improve execution a bit and get some external help, if the stock had tripled by, say, 2026 because margins consistently expanded to 19% I wouldn't be shocked.
But that's kind of the point of the article — looking at 2026, GOOS at anywhere from $8 to $50 wouldn't be something where I'd think, "I can't believe that happened." So what the heck is the stock worth now ?!?!
Great article. I think Canada Goose wants to be Moncler but it’s more like a more expensive version North Face. Their products are supposed to be great for really cold weather and long term durability backed by a solid warranty, but then I wonder how many consumers will become loyal repeat customers?
Loved the commentary on the overall market dynamic as well 👍
They talked up growing repeat customer penetration at the Investor Day, but it's not clear how helpful that is. If you buy a $1500 coat and then two years later a $125 pair of gloves...that's better than nothing, I guess, but not something that drives a massive change in the trajectory.
They do plan to really expand their assortment as well, which carries an implicit acknowledgment of your point — can't be a $5B business, let alone a $10B+ business, with coats driving more half the revenue. The market simply isn't that large, and if the product is that good as you note you're not getting replacement sales for quite some time.
Very interesting! On the other hand, quality luxury companies like LVMH and Kering are presenting pretty solid results (though they slowed in the 4Q2022).
absolutely they did, and that's the core of the short case here. Canada Goose is not LVMH, it's Capri — high-end but still with price-sensitive customers and without those indefinable qualities that make a luxury brand. GOOS even down big isn't priced like that.
but...it's been a really weird four years. They're still a relatively young company in terms of their time being this big, they've opened almost 50 stores (which can be tricky), etc. etc.
I think the 30% margin target is insane, but if they improve execution a bit and get some external help, if the stock had tripled by, say, 2026 because margins consistently expanded to 19% I wouldn't be shocked.
But that's kind of the point of the article — looking at 2026, GOOS at anywhere from $8 to $50 wouldn't be something where I'd think, "I can't believe that happened." So what the heck is the stock worth now ?!?!
Great article. I think Canada Goose wants to be Moncler but it’s more like a more expensive version North Face. Their products are supposed to be great for really cold weather and long term durability backed by a solid warranty, but then I wonder how many consumers will become loyal repeat customers?
Loved the commentary on the overall market dynamic as well 👍
thanks so much.
They talked up growing repeat customer penetration at the Investor Day, but it's not clear how helpful that is. If you buy a $1500 coat and then two years later a $125 pair of gloves...that's better than nothing, I guess, but not something that drives a massive change in the trajectory.
They do plan to really expand their assortment as well, which carries an implicit acknowledgment of your point — can't be a $5B business, let alone a $10B+ business, with coats driving more half the revenue. The market simply isn't that large, and if the product is that good as you note you're not getting replacement sales for quite some time.