Overlooked Alpha

Overlooked Alpha

Share this post

Overlooked Alpha
Overlooked Alpha
This Activist Play Trades At Just 6x Free Cash Flow
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

This Activist Play Trades At Just 6x Free Cash Flow

A strong balance sheet, low valuation, and a recent activist win

Wall Street and Main
Apr 07, 2024
∙ Paid
20

Share this post

Overlooked Alpha
Overlooked Alpha
This Activist Play Trades At Just 6x Free Cash Flow
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Share

Highlights:

  • This oil and gas distributor has re-focused its business: ~40% of revenue now comes from more resilient end markets.

  • At barely 6x EBITDA and free cash flow, with net leverage under 1x, the company can earn its market cap in a matter of years.

  • Even a normalized scenario with modest multiple expansion suggests 25% upside in 12 months. Multiple potential tailwinds could drive much bigger gains.

  • Capital allocation is a risk, but an activist win suggests a potential brake on risky M&A — and leaves open the possibility of a sale.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Joe Marwood
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More