Overlooked Alpha

Overlooked Alpha

This Activist Play Trades At Just 6x Free Cash Flow

A strong balance sheet, low valuation, and a recent activist win

Overlooked Alpha
Apr 07, 2024
∙ Paid

Highlights:

  • This oil and gas distributor has re-focused its business: ~40% of revenue now comes from more resilient end markets.

  • At barely 6x EBITDA and free cash flow, with net leverage under 1x, the company can earn its market cap in a matter of years.

  • Even a normalized scenario with modest multiple expansion suggests 25% upside in 12 months. Multiple potential tailwinds could drive much bigger gains.

  • Capital allocation is a risk, but an activist win suggests a potential brake on risky M&A — and leaves open the possibility of a sale.

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