that is an excellent piece, thanks for calling out. I actually did a long Twitter thread on EVTL a month ago, when it had a weird rally to $10. From a distance (admittedly no evidence for this) it looked like some kind of manipulation off good news that wasn't really that big of a deal (confirmation of delivery slots at AAL, which is a non-binding agreement).
Another eVTOL play, EVEX, had a very similar rally. I wrote they both looked like 2021 rallies in a 2022 market.
Oddly, EVEX has held up (it's still at $10). EVTL has crashed (pardon the pun) 60%-plus after its parabolic gains. EVEX would look like a short, except for cost to borrow is over 200% last I looked.
Pretty wild that the six stocks still have a market cap of ~$8 billion combined. Small data point for the idea that this market, or at least that part of the market, still has another sizeable leg down ahead.
I mean, maybe, but I'm not sure that should matter quite that much. Look at LVWR, for instance - it's a spin-off from Harley, so it should be the best possible business for e-bikes, and it's fallen off the table post-merger (-42% in less than two months).
But to be completely honest, I really don't know the answer. We've seen these low-float SPACs go nuts, but the gains usually fade pretty quick. Float might be part of it, though: there's essentially zero shares to short as far as I can tell, and borrow rate is 285% (two hundred eighty five) per my screen.
Speaking of air taxi stocks, do you know EVTL? This is an excellent read:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556671-vertical-aerospace-red-flags-everywhere-i-look
that is an excellent piece, thanks for calling out. I actually did a long Twitter thread on EVTL a month ago, when it had a weird rally to $10. From a distance (admittedly no evidence for this) it looked like some kind of manipulation off good news that wasn't really that big of a deal (confirmation of delivery slots at AAL, which is a non-binding agreement).
https://twitter.com/okieinvestor/status/1581292664783110145
Another eVTOL play, EVEX, had a very similar rally. I wrote they both looked like 2021 rallies in a 2022 market.
Oddly, EVEX has held up (it's still at $10). EVTL has crashed (pardon the pun) 60%-plus after its parabolic gains. EVEX would look like a short, except for cost to borrow is over 200% last I looked.
Pretty wild that the six stocks still have a market cap of ~$8 billion combined. Small data point for the idea that this market, or at least that part of the market, still has another sizeable leg down ahead.
EVEX may be more credible since it was incubated by ERJ?
I mean, maybe, but I'm not sure that should matter quite that much. Look at LVWR, for instance - it's a spin-off from Harley, so it should be the best possible business for e-bikes, and it's fallen off the table post-merger (-42% in less than two months).
But to be completely honest, I really don't know the answer. We've seen these low-float SPACs go nuts, but the gains usually fade pretty quick. Float might be part of it, though: there's essentially zero shares to short as far as I can tell, and borrow rate is 285% (two hundred eighty five) per my screen.