Overlooked Alpha

Overlooked Alpha

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Overlooked Alpha
Overlooked Alpha
This Oil Services Stock Can Gain 50%+
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This Oil Services Stock Can Gain 50%+

An overlooked story creates an attractive opportunity.

Overlooked Alpha
Oct 31, 2024
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Overlooked Alpha
Overlooked Alpha
This Oil Services Stock Can Gain 50%+
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a drilling rig in the middle of a desert

💡 Highlights

  • Oilfield services provider Weatherford International (WFRD) has transformed from bankruptcy to a disciplined industry leader, yet trades at just 4.8x EBITDA - a steep discount to peers.

  • Originally founded in 1941, it grew through aggressive M&A but suffered from poor integration and high debt, leading to its eventual Chapter 11 filing when oil prices collapsed.

  • Under CEO Grish Saligram, the company has achieved dramatic margin improvement from below 10% in 2017 to approximately 25% currently. The improvement stems from better integration of historical acquisitions and operational discipline - not just industry tailwinds.

  • More than 80% of revenue comes from outside the U.S., with strong relationships with state-owned oil companies like Petrobras and Saudi Aramco. This international focus could be advantageous given a strong outlook for offshore drilling.

  • $350M in free cash flow generated just this year equates to 6% of market cap and opens the door to return cash to shareholders. Management has initiated a dividend program and a $500M share repurchase plan (representing over 8% of shares outstanding).

  • While investors remain skeptical due to its troubled history, WFRD has clearly broken free from its past under new leadership. We see potential for 50%+ upside through reasonable assumptions of multiple expansion and earnings growth. Let’s take a deeper look…

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