we mentioned the "falling knife" aspect very briefly, and probably too briefly. those dynamics might definitely have something to do with Friday's sell-off - some traders hoping a beat would let them escape at a higher price, and then giving up the ghost since the quarter wasn't beat-and-raise.
But, the float has turned over ~1.2x since 12/8, so at least some of those trapped positions have left. Short interest is almost 13% of the float, and there's probably some covering there the next time mean reversion occurs.
Short-term, you definitely need to move gingerly, but I think there's an argument that the trading dynamics that have wrecked the stock over two-plus months can move in the stock's favor relatively quickly, whether it's broader rotations or the nature of the CLFD shareholder base itself.
Generally speaking, I'm personally willing to take on those short-term risks if I see a case that the mid-term returns can be pretty good. And I'd say generally that if Clearfield can simply hit its numbers in CY23, the odds are high that this crash is going to look like another blip on the long-term chart that keeps going up and to the right.
Momentum buyers and secondary investors trapped in a broken chart now turned sellers?
Get me out lol.
we mentioned the "falling knife" aspect very briefly, and probably too briefly. those dynamics might definitely have something to do with Friday's sell-off - some traders hoping a beat would let them escape at a higher price, and then giving up the ghost since the quarter wasn't beat-and-raise.
But, the float has turned over ~1.2x since 12/8, so at least some of those trapped positions have left. Short interest is almost 13% of the float, and there's probably some covering there the next time mean reversion occurs.
Short-term, you definitely need to move gingerly, but I think there's an argument that the trading dynamics that have wrecked the stock over two-plus months can move in the stock's favor relatively quickly, whether it's broader rotations or the nature of the CLFD shareholder base itself.
Generally speaking, I'm personally willing to take on those short-term risks if I see a case that the mid-term returns can be pretty good. And I'd say generally that if Clearfield can simply hit its numbers in CY23, the odds are high that this crash is going to look like another blip on the long-term chart that keeps going up and to the right.