In addition to these stocks (fortunately I didn't buy any of these), the picks I joined that perform horribly include BW, MTLS, VRNT, IHS. UFI has not went down much but has no exciting news either. My guess is they likely gonna disappoint too.
Personally I don't have the time and energy to research what have went wrong with respect to each of the above, so I'll probably sell to collect the tax benefits, and forget about them.
With my limited obersevation of the market, it seems to be bad time to invest in distress reverse ideas, particularly small cap ones. The other perspect is that this is an uncertain time. The world order is being destroyed and reconstructed. A company that did poorly in the past few years likely just has mediocre management who won't be able to navigate in this rapid moving environment. In short, if they have sucked and made mistakes, they likely will continue to be sucker and make more mistakes.
BTW, my best performing picks this year is COIN, APP, BKKT, and several bank stocks. So it may be wiser to bet on distress reverse on an entire sector that has been punished badly, rather than single stocks.
it's absolutely fair criticism. Here and in my personal portfolio, I've spent too much time in the dented and discounted bin, and my/our performance has suffered as a result. It's something we've absolutely kept in mind of late.
the bad irony is that we've discussed a theme that you're alluding to here, which largely comes down to the idea that it is appears to be much more difficult to execute a turnaround in the modern environment than it was even just a few years ago. to some extent, COVID and its related effects are probably at play, but there are no doubt structural factors in modern business that mean the best businesses and the best industries are going to outperform.
but if it helps at all, I've definitely come around to your way of thinking here, and I'm exceptionally angry at myself for it taking as long as it did.
Thanks for being frank and reflective, sir. I try to offer my 2 cents and if there is any criticism, it's targeting the mistakes that were made, not anything else.
In fact I don't think turnaround plays are entirely uninvestable. This year I did benefit from the trade of $BUR and $SAVE. These are also high risk plays and I wouldn't have kept my conviction if not for the several contributors who constantly post the latest development and their opinion (ofc, it's my job to objectively analyze whether the opinions are of merits).
So, for the turnaround strategy it may be beneficial to focus on limited picks and constantly follow through. It may also help to only pick those with clear catalysts and timelines - for the abovementioned two, it's about litigations, but we don't need to limit ourselves to that. Any factor that has certain timeframe and able to be verified/falsified can be considered.
all great points, definitely. I think the "catalysts and timelines" point is a good sifting tool. I've talked a couple times on here about how many new retail CEOs in 2015-2019 would take the job and announce a turnaround 'strategy' that was pretty much illusory - just "we're going to do stuff better". unsurprisingly, they didn't work. In this environment - which I do think is tougher for these turnarounds - you probably need a concrete goal that can offer measurable progress.
In addition to these stocks (fortunately I didn't buy any of these), the picks I joined that perform horribly include BW, MTLS, VRNT, IHS. UFI has not went down much but has no exciting news either. My guess is they likely gonna disappoint too.
Personally I don't have the time and energy to research what have went wrong with respect to each of the above, so I'll probably sell to collect the tax benefits, and forget about them.
With my limited obersevation of the market, it seems to be bad time to invest in distress reverse ideas, particularly small cap ones. The other perspect is that this is an uncertain time. The world order is being destroyed and reconstructed. A company that did poorly in the past few years likely just has mediocre management who won't be able to navigate in this rapid moving environment. In short, if they have sucked and made mistakes, they likely will continue to be sucker and make more mistakes.
BTW, my best performing picks this year is COIN, APP, BKKT, and several bank stocks. So it may be wiser to bet on distress reverse on an entire sector that has been punished badly, rather than single stocks.
it's absolutely fair criticism. Here and in my personal portfolio, I've spent too much time in the dented and discounted bin, and my/our performance has suffered as a result. It's something we've absolutely kept in mind of late.
the bad irony is that we've discussed a theme that you're alluding to here, which largely comes down to the idea that it is appears to be much more difficult to execute a turnaround in the modern environment than it was even just a few years ago. to some extent, COVID and its related effects are probably at play, but there are no doubt structural factors in modern business that mean the best businesses and the best industries are going to outperform.
but if it helps at all, I've definitely come around to your way of thinking here, and I'm exceptionally angry at myself for it taking as long as it did.
Thanks for being frank and reflective, sir. I try to offer my 2 cents and if there is any criticism, it's targeting the mistakes that were made, not anything else.
In fact I don't think turnaround plays are entirely uninvestable. This year I did benefit from the trade of $BUR and $SAVE. These are also high risk plays and I wouldn't have kept my conviction if not for the several contributors who constantly post the latest development and their opinion (ofc, it's my job to objectively analyze whether the opinions are of merits).
So, for the turnaround strategy it may be beneficial to focus on limited picks and constantly follow through. It may also help to only pick those with clear catalysts and timelines - for the abovementioned two, it's about litigations, but we don't need to limit ourselves to that. Any factor that has certain timeframe and able to be verified/falsified can be considered.
all great points, definitely. I think the "catalysts and timelines" point is a good sifting tool. I've talked a couple times on here about how many new retail CEOs in 2015-2019 would take the job and announce a turnaround 'strategy' that was pretty much illusory - just "we're going to do stuff better". unsurprisingly, they didn't work. In this environment - which I do think is tougher for these turnarounds - you probably need a concrete goal that can offer measurable progress.